Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ GLD • 1 Minute
This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 38 days of GLD • 1 Minute (SPDR Gold Trust) data, from June 3, 2025 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 38 days of GLD • 1 Minute candles. This backtest resulted in 181 positions, with the average win rate of 40% and reward-risk ratio of 2.09. If you assume that 2.09 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 32.4 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 2.60% vs 0.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -1.90% vs -5.50% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 30.30% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 40.0%, vs 32.4% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.09
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 30% time-in-market, you get Infinity% of the asset upside potential, and 34.55% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when
All of the following: # Echo 1min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 1min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 1min Chart(close) > 1min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up
Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when
All of the following: # Oscar 1min Chart(close) < 1min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ GLD • 1 Minute (2.6%) backtest results explained by Mike
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this BB strategy on GLD is looking pretty juicy! 🚀 The numbers are giving me some serious FOMO vibes, but let's break it down like we're counting Wendy's tendies.
First off, that 2.6% net profit in just 38 days is not too shabby, especially compared to the buy & hold sitting at 0%. What really gets me hyped is that 2.09 risk/reward ratio - we're basically getting double the tendies on our winners compared to what we're risking! And check this out: we only need a 32.4% win rate to break even, but we're crushing it at 40%. That's like getting extra fries in your order! 🍟
The only thing making me a bit nervous is that 60% loss rate - feels like getting your order wrong more times than right. But since our winners are bigger than our losers, we're still coming out ahead. Plus, that max drawdown of only -1.9% is super chill compared to the asset's -5.5%. This could be a solid strategy to YOLO some cash into, especially with 9.5 trades per day keeping the action hot! 💎🙌
Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on GLD • 1 Minute
| Total Trades | 181 | Net Profit | 2.6% | Buy & Hold Profit | 0.0% |
| Win Rate | 40% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.09 | Max Drawdown | -1.9% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -5.5% | Exposure | 30.3% | Avg Candles in Position | 15.7 |
| Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | Realized Volatility | — | ||
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.4 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.1 | Avg Trades per Month | 285.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 9.5 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.2 | Loss Std Dev | 0.1 | Win Std Dev | 0.2 |
| Expectancy | 0.2 | Beta | 0.31 |
All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 24% | (6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x | (-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x | 45 | 2.9 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 28% | (0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x | (-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 30% | (2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x | 40 | 2.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 29% | (10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x | (-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x | 42 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 30% | (1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x | (-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x | 34 | 2.2 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 31% | (-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x | (-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x | 31 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 26% | (-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x | (-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x | 32 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x | (-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 38 | 2.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 32% | (2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x | (-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x | 36 | 2.1 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x | (-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x | 43 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 33% | (8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x | (-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x | (-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x | 42 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 31% | (4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x | 39 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 34% | (25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x | (-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 30% | (9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x | (-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x | 38 | 1.8 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 32% | (6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x | (-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x | 40 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 35% | (21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x | (-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x | 41 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 36% | (521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x | (-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x | 47 | 2.3 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x | (-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x | 46 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 34% | (2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x | (-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x | 46 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 34% | (62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x | (-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 36% | (320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x | (-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 40 | 3.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 29% | (3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x | (-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x | 30 | 2.7 |
GLD • Daily | 33% | (106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x | (-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x | 45 | 2.1 |
NVDA • Daily | 39% | (9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x | (-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x | 50 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 32% | (32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x | (-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x | 42 | 1.7 |
TSLA • Daily | 35% | (8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x | (-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x | 45 | 5.0 |
WMT • Daily | 34% | (-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x | 37 | 1.7 |