50/200 SMA crosslongBacktest Results @ WMT • Daily
The Moving Average Crossover strategy uses two moving averages of different periods to generate buy and sell signals. It appoximates the idea of a trending market by using 2 SMAs, one short fast SMA(50) and another slow longer SMA(200). It buys whenever a short SMA(50) crosses up a long SMA(200), thereby implying that the direction of the market has changed. It sells once a short SMA(50) crosses down a long SMA(200). These are fairly long MAs, which means that this strategy is naturalyl meant to capture bigger moves, and thereby might not be a good fit for short time frames. But assumptions like that do not mean anything, because we've backested it! See youself.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 39.4 years of WMT • Daily (Walmart Inc.) data, from March 4, 1986 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested 50/200 SMA cross on 39.4 years of WMT • Daily candles. This backtest resulted in 31 positions, with the average win rate of 39% and reward-risk ratio of 8.05. If you assume that 8.05 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 11.1 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 31 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 1143.90% vs 13022.20% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -57.10% vs -50.60% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 64.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 39.0%, vs 11.1% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 8.05
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 64% time-in-market, you get 8.78% of the asset upside potential, and 112.85% of the asset downside potential.
50/200 SMA cross: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Papa" D Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↗ D Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross: exit a position when
All of the following: # "India" D Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↘ D Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross @ WMT • Daily (1143.9%) backtest results explained by Sarah
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is complete garbage! I can't believe someone would even consider trading this. 31 trades in 39 years? Are you running a trading strategy or collecting rare stamps?
The win rate is pathetic - only 39%! Yes, yes, I see the "healthy leeway" above minimal win rate, but that's just because your winners are huge compared to losers. This is pure luck, not skill. You're basically waiting for a lottery ticket while bleeding money most of the time. The max drawdown of -57.1% is horrific - you could lose more than half your money! Who can stomach that?
Look at the exposure - 64.1% market exposure but you're massively underperforming buy & hold (1143.9% vs 13022.2%). This means you're basically sitting there like an idiot, missing out on most of the gains while still taking on huge risks. And those losing streaks! 5 losses in a row will make you want to jump out the window.
The only reason this doesn't look completely terrible is because you're testing it on WMT which has been a monster stock for decades. Put this on any other stock and watch your account go to zero. Do yourself a favor and either buy and hold or find a real strategy. This is embarassing.
Tabular metrics of 50/200 SMA cross backtested on WMT • Daily
| Total Trades | 31 | Net Profit | 1143.9% | Buy & Hold Profit | 13022.2% |
| Win Rate | 39% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 8.05 | Max Drawdown | -57.1% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -50.6% | Exposure | 64.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 203.8 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.16 | Sortino Ratio | 0.52 | Realized Volatility | 16.88% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.7 | Max Losing Streak | 5 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 3.2 | Avg Trades per Month | 0.1 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 69.4 | Loss Std Dev | 5.6 | Win Std Dev | 100.8 |
| Expectancy | 2.5 | Beta | 0.61 |
All backtests for 50/200 SMA cross
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 57% | (5.4%/8.9%) 0.61x | (-2.0%/-1.9%) 1.05x | 39 | 5.4 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 61% | (-1.1%/-1.0%) 1.10x | (-1.2%/-1.2%) 1.00x | 20 | 1.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 52% | (1.7%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-2.5%/-5.5%) 0.45x | 36 | 2.5 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 61% | (1.2%/16.7%) 0.07x | (-7.9%/-4.4%) 1.80x | 28 | 2.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 60% | (0.5%/4.6%) 0.11x | (-2.5%/-2.1%) 1.19x | 33 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 47% | (6.6%/-10.3%) -0.64x | (-11.2%/-21.4%) 0.52x | 39 | 2.1 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 41% | (-0.5%/-5.4%) 0.09x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 29 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (18.2%/22.4%) 0.81x | (-8.6%/-12.1%) 0.71x | 41 | 3.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 55% | (2.5%/5.8%) 0.43x | (-2.2%/-4.3%) 0.51x | 38 | 2.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 58% | (26.1%/43.7%) 0.60x | (-5.9%/-8.3%) 0.71x | 54 | 3.1 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 57% | (5.0%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-33.4%/-42.8%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 60% | (6.6%/14.3%) 0.46x | (-13.4%/-20.7%) 0.65x | 41 | 1.9 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 47% | (18.4%/59.0%) 0.31x | (-34.8%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 41 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 60% | (37.4%/40.1%) 0.93x | (-10.3%/-23.8%) 0.43x | 62 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 56% | (36.4%/68.2%) 0.53x | (-31.3%/-30.6%) 1.02x | 43 | 2.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 50% | (6.9%/6.8%) 1.01x | (-5.7%/-9.0%) 0.63x | 42 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 60% | (35.8%/117.6%) 0.30x | (-26.6%/-22.2%) 1.20x | 36 | 3.0 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 61% | (783.4%/3126.3%) 0.25x | (-51.4%/-68.0%) 0.76x | 52 | 3.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 64% | (85.7%/106.7%) 0.80x | (-19.0%/-35.1%) 0.54x | 61 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 55% | (2930.2%/1395.5%) 2.10x | (-38.7%/-75.1%) 0.52x | 56 | 6.0 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 60% | (33.6%/138.2%) 0.24x | (-28.4%/-26.9%) 1.06x | 50 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 59% | (638.7%/1337.5%) 0.48x | (-61.1%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 83 | 7.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 35% | (4.8%/10.8%) 0.44x | (-12.2%/-23.3%) 0.52x | 71 | 0.7 |
GLD • Daily | 61% | (242.9%/595.1%) 0.41x | (-36.4%/-45.3%) 0.80x | 46 | 6.4 |
NVDA • Daily | 65% | (83183.3%/373678.5%) 0.22x | (-57.1%/-90.0%) 0.63x | 77 | 16.0 |
SPY • Daily | 72% | (1127.3%/1316.3%) 0.86x | (-32.5%/-56.7%) 0.57x | 87 | 3.8 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (3139.0%/24185.2%) 0.13x | (-65.4%/-75.0%) 0.87x | 38 | 25.3 |
WMT • Daily | 64% | (1143.9%/13022.2%) 0.09x | (-57.1%/-50.6%) 1.13x | 39 | 8.1 |