50/200 SMA crosslongBacktest Results @ TSLA • Daily
The Moving Average Crossover strategy uses two moving averages of different periods to generate buy and sell signals. It appoximates the idea of a trending market by using 2 SMAs, one short fast SMA(50) and another slow longer SMA(200). It buys whenever a short SMA(50) crosses up a long SMA(200), thereby implying that the direction of the market has changed. It sells once a short SMA(50) crosses down a long SMA(200). These are fairly long MAs, which means that this strategy is naturalyl meant to capture bigger moves, and thereby might not be a good fit for short time frames. But assumptions like that do not mean anything, because we've backested it! See youself.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 15 years of TSLA • Daily (Tesla, Inc.) data, from June 29, 2010 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested 50/200 SMA cross on 15 years of TSLA • Daily candles. This backtest resulted in 13 positions, with the average win rate of 38% and reward-risk ratio of 25.32. If you assume that 25.32 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 3.8 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 13 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 3139.00% vs 24185.20% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -65.40% vs -75.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 57.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 38.0%, vs 3.8% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 25.32
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 57% time-in-market, you get 12.98% of the asset upside potential, and 87.20% of the asset downside potential.
50/200 SMA cross: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Papa" D Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↗ D Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross: exit a position when
All of the following: # "India" D Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↘ D Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross @ TSLA • Daily (3139.0%) backtest results explained by Alex C
Alex C
AuthorThis backtest shows some interesting metrics, but I have serious concerns about the statistical significance. With only 13 trades over 15 years, we simply don't have enough data points to make reliable conclusions. That's less than 1 trade per year - not good for building statistical confidence.
The win rate of 38% looks terrible at first glance, but combined with the remarkable risk/reward ratio of 25.32 (average win being 296.58% versus average loss of -11.71%), it actually delivers positive expectancy. However, I must point out that such extreme risk/reward numbers are suspicious and might indicate overfitting or survivorship bias, especially with Tesla being such a unique case in market history.
The maximum drawdown of 65.4% is concerning, and the strategy significantly underperformed buy & hold (3139% vs 24185%). The market exposure of 57.1% suggests this is more of a trend-following approach, which makes sense given the SMA crossover logic. But with such infrequent trading and high drawdown risk, I would not recommend this strategy for real trading without significant modifications and more rigorous testing across multiple instruments. The numbers look more like a historical accident than a reliable trading system.
Tabular metrics of 50/200 SMA cross backtested on TSLA • Daily
| Total Trades | 13 | Net Profit | 3139.0% | Buy & Hold Profit | 24185.2% |
| Win Rate | 38% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 25.32 | Max Drawdown | -65.4% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -75.0% | Exposure | 57.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 165.1 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.41 | Sortino Ratio | 0.97 | Realized Volatility | 38.47% |
| Max Winning Streak | 2 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.3 | Max Losing Streak | 3 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.0 | Avg Trades per Month | 0.1 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 287.1 | Loss Std Dev | 8.5 | Win Std Dev | 417.2 |
| Expectancy | 9.1 | Beta | 0.63 |
All backtests for 50/200 SMA cross
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 57% | (5.4%/8.9%) 0.61x | (-2.0%/-1.9%) 1.05x | 39 | 5.4 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 61% | (-1.1%/-1.0%) 1.10x | (-1.2%/-1.2%) 1.00x | 20 | 1.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 52% | (1.7%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-2.5%/-5.5%) 0.45x | 36 | 2.5 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 61% | (1.2%/16.7%) 0.07x | (-7.9%/-4.4%) 1.80x | 28 | 2.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 60% | (0.5%/4.6%) 0.11x | (-2.5%/-2.1%) 1.19x | 33 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 47% | (6.6%/-10.3%) -0.64x | (-11.2%/-21.4%) 0.52x | 39 | 2.1 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 41% | (-0.5%/-5.4%) 0.09x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 29 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (18.2%/22.4%) 0.81x | (-8.6%/-12.1%) 0.71x | 41 | 3.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 55% | (2.5%/5.8%) 0.43x | (-2.2%/-4.3%) 0.51x | 38 | 2.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 58% | (26.1%/43.7%) 0.60x | (-5.9%/-8.3%) 0.71x | 54 | 3.1 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 57% | (5.0%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-33.4%/-42.8%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 60% | (6.6%/14.3%) 0.46x | (-13.4%/-20.7%) 0.65x | 41 | 1.9 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 47% | (18.4%/59.0%) 0.31x | (-34.8%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 41 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 60% | (37.4%/40.1%) 0.93x | (-10.3%/-23.8%) 0.43x | 62 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 56% | (36.4%/68.2%) 0.53x | (-31.3%/-30.6%) 1.02x | 43 | 2.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 50% | (6.9%/6.8%) 1.01x | (-5.7%/-9.0%) 0.63x | 42 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 60% | (35.8%/117.6%) 0.30x | (-26.6%/-22.2%) 1.20x | 36 | 3.0 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 61% | (783.4%/3126.3%) 0.25x | (-51.4%/-68.0%) 0.76x | 52 | 3.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 64% | (85.7%/106.7%) 0.80x | (-19.0%/-35.1%) 0.54x | 61 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 55% | (2930.2%/1395.5%) 2.10x | (-38.7%/-75.1%) 0.52x | 56 | 6.0 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 60% | (33.6%/138.2%) 0.24x | (-28.4%/-26.9%) 1.06x | 50 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 59% | (638.7%/1337.5%) 0.48x | (-61.1%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 83 | 7.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 35% | (4.8%/10.8%) 0.44x | (-12.2%/-23.3%) 0.52x | 71 | 0.7 |
GLD • Daily | 61% | (242.9%/595.1%) 0.41x | (-36.4%/-45.3%) 0.80x | 46 | 6.4 |
NVDA • Daily | 65% | (83183.3%/373678.5%) 0.22x | (-57.1%/-90.0%) 0.63x | 77 | 16.0 |
SPY • Daily | 72% | (1127.3%/1316.3%) 0.86x | (-32.5%/-56.7%) 0.57x | 87 | 3.8 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (3139.0%/24185.2%) 0.13x | (-65.4%/-75.0%) 0.87x | 38 | 25.3 |
WMT • Daily | 64% | (1143.9%/13022.2%) 0.09x | (-57.1%/-50.6%) 1.13x | 39 | 8.1 |