50/200 SMA crosslongBacktest Results @ NVDA • 1 Hour
The Moving Average Crossover strategy uses two moving averages of different periods to generate buy and sell signals. It appoximates the idea of a trending market by using 2 SMAs, one short fast SMA(50) and another slow longer SMA(200). It buys whenever a short SMA(50) crosses up a long SMA(200), thereby implying that the direction of the market has changed. It sells once a short SMA(50) crosses down a long SMA(200). These are fairly long MAs, which means that this strategy is naturalyl meant to capture bigger moves, and thereby might not be a good fit for short time frames. But assumptions like that do not mean anything, because we've backested it! See youself.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from October 25, 2019 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested 50/200 SMA cross on 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 27 positions, with the average win rate of 52% and reward-risk ratio of 3.52. If you assume that 3.52 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 22.1 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 27 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 783.40% vs 3126.30% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -51.40% vs -68.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 61.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 52.0%, vs 22.1% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 3.52
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 61% time-in-market, you get 25.06% of the asset upside potential, and 75.59% of the asset downside potential.
50/200 SMA cross: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Papa" 60min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↗ 60min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross: exit a position when
All of the following: # "India" 60min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↘ 60min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross @ NVDA • 1 Hour (783.4%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some interesting metrics, but I have concerns about the reliability. The strategy seems to produce very few trades - only 27 over 5.7 years. This is problematic from statistical perspective, as we need more data points for reliable conclusions.
The win rate of 52% combined with a good risk/reward ratio of 3.52 looks promising at first glance. However, the max drawdown of 51.4% is quite high, which could be difficult to handle psychologically. The strategy significantly underperforms buy & hold (783.4% vs 3126.3%), which is not optimal for a stock like NVDA that has been in strong uptrend.
I see red flags in the trading frequency - with only 0.8 trades per month, this strategy might be too passive. Also, the performance metrics across different timeframes are inconsistent - showing both extremely high gains and significant losses. This suggests the strategy might not be robust enough. I would recommend either adjusting the parameters to generate more signals or looking for additional confirmation indicators to improve reliability.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, check out these juicy NVDA results! 🚀 This 50/200 SMA cross strategy is showing some serious potential, even though it's not beating the insane buy & hold returns (I mean, it's NVIDIA we're talking about, that thing's been on fire! 🔥).
The stats are actually pretty sweet - 3.52 risk/reward ratio is no joke, and that 52% win rate with 33% average wins vs 9% average losses is looking clean! What really gets me hyped is that win rate leeway - we only need 22% to break even, but we're hitting 52%. That's like having a massive safety net under our trading bridge, fam! 💪
But keeping it real though - that 51% max drawdown is pretty scary (though still better than holding through NVDA's 68% drops), and we're only getting like 1 trade per month. Plus that -198% performance in the 1Y period is kinda sus. Still, looking at those 2Y+ returns (350-720% gains) makes me wanna YOLO my next paycheck into this! 🤑 Just kidding... unless?
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this strategy is a complete disaster! I can't believe someone would even consider trading this garbage. Let me tell you why this is terrible.
First of all, only 27 trades in almost 6 years? That's ridiculous! You're making less than 1 trade per month - might as well go play bingo with your abuela. And look at that pathetic 783% return compared to buy & hold's 3126%. You're literally losing money by trying to be clever instead of just holding the damn stock.
The risk metrics are absolutely horrible. A -51.4% drawdown? Are you trying to give yourself a heart attack? And that Sharpe ratio of 0.74 is embarassingly bad - it means you're taking on massive risk for mediocre returns. Even worse, your Sortino ratio is 0.28 which shows you're handling downside risk like a drunk torero.
The only semi-decent thing here is the Risk/Reward ratio of 3.52, but it's completely meaningless with such few trades. And don't get me excited about that 52% win rate - it's barely better than flipping a coin!
Anyone who trades this strategy deserves to lose their money. My advice? Either buy and hold or find a strategy that actually trades more than once in a blue moon. This is just painful to look at.
Tabular metrics of 50/200 SMA cross backtested on NVDA • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 27 | Net Profit | 783.4% | Buy & Hold Profit | 3126.3% |
| Win Rate | 52% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 3.52 | Max Drawdown | -51.4% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -68.0% | Exposure | 61.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 225.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.74 | Sortino Ratio | 0.28 | Realized Volatility | 34.86% |
| Max Winning Streak | 4 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.0 | Max Losing Streak | 4 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.2 | Avg Trades per Month | 0.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 36.6 | Loss Std Dev | 6.2 | Win Std Dev | 41.2 |
| Expectancy | 1.3 | Beta | 0.55 |
All backtests for 50/200 SMA cross
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 57% | (5.4%/8.9%) 0.61x | (-2.0%/-1.9%) 1.05x | 39 | 5.4 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 61% | (-1.1%/-1.0%) 1.10x | (-1.2%/-1.2%) 1.00x | 20 | 1.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 52% | (1.7%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-2.5%/-5.5%) 0.45x | 36 | 2.5 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 61% | (1.2%/16.7%) 0.07x | (-7.9%/-4.4%) 1.80x | 28 | 2.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 60% | (0.5%/4.6%) 0.11x | (-2.5%/-2.1%) 1.19x | 33 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 47% | (6.6%/-10.3%) -0.64x | (-11.2%/-21.4%) 0.52x | 39 | 2.1 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 41% | (-0.5%/-5.4%) 0.09x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 29 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (18.2%/22.4%) 0.81x | (-8.6%/-12.1%) 0.71x | 41 | 3.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 55% | (2.5%/5.8%) 0.43x | (-2.2%/-4.3%) 0.51x | 38 | 2.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 58% | (26.1%/43.7%) 0.60x | (-5.9%/-8.3%) 0.71x | 54 | 3.1 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 57% | (5.0%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-33.4%/-42.8%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 60% | (6.6%/14.3%) 0.46x | (-13.4%/-20.7%) 0.65x | 41 | 1.9 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 47% | (18.4%/59.0%) 0.31x | (-34.8%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 41 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 60% | (37.4%/40.1%) 0.93x | (-10.3%/-23.8%) 0.43x | 62 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 56% | (36.4%/68.2%) 0.53x | (-31.3%/-30.6%) 1.02x | 43 | 2.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 50% | (6.9%/6.8%) 1.01x | (-5.7%/-9.0%) 0.63x | 42 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 60% | (35.8%/117.6%) 0.30x | (-26.6%/-22.2%) 1.20x | 36 | 3.0 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 61% | (783.4%/3126.3%) 0.25x | (-51.4%/-68.0%) 0.76x | 52 | 3.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 64% | (85.7%/106.7%) 0.80x | (-19.0%/-35.1%) 0.54x | 61 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 55% | (2930.2%/1395.5%) 2.10x | (-38.7%/-75.1%) 0.52x | 56 | 6.0 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 60% | (33.6%/138.2%) 0.24x | (-28.4%/-26.9%) 1.06x | 50 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 59% | (638.7%/1337.5%) 0.48x | (-61.1%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 83 | 7.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 35% | (4.8%/10.8%) 0.44x | (-12.2%/-23.3%) 0.52x | 71 | 0.7 |
GLD • Daily | 61% | (242.9%/595.1%) 0.41x | (-36.4%/-45.3%) 0.80x | 46 | 6.4 |
NVDA • Daily | 65% | (83183.3%/373678.5%) 0.22x | (-57.1%/-90.0%) 0.63x | 77 | 16.0 |
SPY • Daily | 72% | (1127.3%/1316.3%) 0.86x | (-32.5%/-56.7%) 0.57x | 87 | 3.8 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (3139.0%/24185.2%) 0.13x | (-65.4%/-75.0%) 0.87x | 38 | 25.3 |
WMT • Daily | 64% | (1143.9%/13022.2%) 0.09x | (-57.1%/-50.6%) 1.13x | 39 | 8.1 |