50/200 SMA crosslongBacktest Results @ EURUSD • 1 Hour
The Moving Average Crossover strategy uses two moving averages of different periods to generate buy and sell signals. It appoximates the idea of a trending market by using 2 SMAs, one short fast SMA(50) and another slow longer SMA(200). It buys whenever a short SMA(50) crosses up a long SMA(200), thereby implying that the direction of the market has changed. It sells once a short SMA(50) crosses down a long SMA(200). These are fairly long MAs, which means that this strategy is naturalyl meant to capture bigger moves, and thereby might not be a good fit for short time frames. But assumptions like that do not mean anything, because we've backested it! See youself.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 19.7 months of EURUSD • 1 Hour (Euro vs USD spot (Interactive Brokers)) data, from November 26, 2023 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested 50/200 SMA cross on 19.7 months of EURUSD • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 26 positions, with the average win rate of 42% and reward-risk ratio of 2.42. If you assume that 2.42 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 29.2 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 26 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 6.90% vs 6.80% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -5.70% vs -9.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 50.30% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 42.0%, vs 29.2% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.42
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 50% time-in-market, you get 101.47% of the asset upside potential, and 63.33% of the asset downside potential.
50/200 SMA cross: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Papa" 60min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↗ 60min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross: exit a position when
All of the following: # "India" 60min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↘ 60min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross @ EURUSD • 1 Hour (6.9%) backtest results explained by Mike
Mike
AuthorYo fam, let me break down this 50/200 SMA cross strategy on EURUSD! 🚀
This is actually looking pretty sweet for a classic moving average crossover system! We're beating buy & hold (6.9% vs 6.8%), and the risk metrics are looking decent with a max drawdown of only -5.7% (way better than the asset's -9.0%). The R/R ratio of 2.42 is straight fire 🔥, meaning our winners are more than twice the size of our losers.
What's really got me hyped is that 41.7% win rate leeway - that's HUGE margin for error! Like, we only need 29.2% wins to break even, but we're hitting 42%. Sure, that 7-trade losing streak looks scary af, but with these risk ratios, we can handle it. Only 2.6 trades per month means I can totally manage this while flipping burgers at Wendy's! 💪
I'd definitely consider throwing some tendies at this strat, but maybe start small and scale up. The Sharpe ratio is a bit sus at -0.66, but that's probably because we're only in the market 50% of the time. To the moon! 🌙 (But responsibly, ya know?) 📈
Tabular metrics of 50/200 SMA cross backtested on EURUSD • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 26 | Net Profit | 6.9% | Buy & Hold Profit | 6.8% |
| Win Rate | 42% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.42 | Max Drawdown | -5.7% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -9.0% | Exposure | 50.3% | Avg Candles in Position | 187.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.66 | Sortino Ratio | -0.22 | Realized Volatility | 4.77% |
| Max Winning Streak | 4 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.8 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 3.0 | Avg Trades per Month | 2.6 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.1 |
| Return Std Dev | 1.7 | Loss Std Dev | 0.3 | Win Std Dev | 2.0 |
| Expectancy | 0.4 | Beta | 0.53 |
All backtests for 50/200 SMA cross
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 57% | (5.4%/8.9%) 0.61x | (-2.0%/-1.9%) 1.05x | 39 | 5.4 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 61% | (-1.1%/-1.0%) 1.10x | (-1.2%/-1.2%) 1.00x | 20 | 1.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 52% | (1.7%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-2.5%/-5.5%) 0.45x | 36 | 2.5 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 61% | (1.2%/16.7%) 0.07x | (-7.9%/-4.4%) 1.80x | 28 | 2.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 60% | (0.5%/4.6%) 0.11x | (-2.5%/-2.1%) 1.19x | 33 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 47% | (6.6%/-10.3%) -0.64x | (-11.2%/-21.4%) 0.52x | 39 | 2.1 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 41% | (-0.5%/-5.4%) 0.09x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 29 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (18.2%/22.4%) 0.81x | (-8.6%/-12.1%) 0.71x | 41 | 3.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 55% | (2.5%/5.8%) 0.43x | (-2.2%/-4.3%) 0.51x | 38 | 2.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 58% | (26.1%/43.7%) 0.60x | (-5.9%/-8.3%) 0.71x | 54 | 3.1 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 57% | (5.0%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-33.4%/-42.8%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 60% | (6.6%/14.3%) 0.46x | (-13.4%/-20.7%) 0.65x | 41 | 1.9 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 47% | (18.4%/59.0%) 0.31x | (-34.8%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 41 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 60% | (37.4%/40.1%) 0.93x | (-10.3%/-23.8%) 0.43x | 62 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 56% | (36.4%/68.2%) 0.53x | (-31.3%/-30.6%) 1.02x | 43 | 2.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 50% | (6.9%/6.8%) 1.01x | (-5.7%/-9.0%) 0.63x | 42 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 60% | (35.8%/117.6%) 0.30x | (-26.6%/-22.2%) 1.20x | 36 | 3.0 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 61% | (783.4%/3126.3%) 0.25x | (-51.4%/-68.0%) 0.76x | 52 | 3.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 64% | (85.7%/106.7%) 0.80x | (-19.0%/-35.1%) 0.54x | 61 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 55% | (2930.2%/1395.5%) 2.10x | (-38.7%/-75.1%) 0.52x | 56 | 6.0 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 60% | (33.6%/138.2%) 0.24x | (-28.4%/-26.9%) 1.06x | 50 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 59% | (638.7%/1337.5%) 0.48x | (-61.1%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 83 | 7.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 35% | (4.8%/10.8%) 0.44x | (-12.2%/-23.3%) 0.52x | 71 | 0.7 |
GLD • Daily | 61% | (242.9%/595.1%) 0.41x | (-36.4%/-45.3%) 0.80x | 46 | 6.4 |
NVDA • Daily | 65% | (83183.3%/373678.5%) 0.22x | (-57.1%/-90.0%) 0.63x | 77 | 16.0 |
SPY • Daily | 72% | (1127.3%/1316.3%) 0.86x | (-32.5%/-56.7%) 0.57x | 87 | 3.8 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (3139.0%/24185.2%) 0.13x | (-65.4%/-75.0%) 0.87x | 38 | 25.3 |
WMT • Daily | 64% | (1143.9%/13022.2%) 0.09x | (-57.1%/-50.6%) 1.13x | 39 | 8.1 |