50/200 SMA crosslongBacktest Results @ BTCUSDT • 1 Hour
The Moving Average Crossover strategy uses two moving averages of different periods to generate buy and sell signals. It appoximates the idea of a trending market by using 2 SMAs, one short fast SMA(50) and another slow longer SMA(200). It buys whenever a short SMA(50) crosses up a long SMA(200), thereby implying that the direction of the market has changed. It sells once a short SMA(50) crosses down a long SMA(200). These are fairly long MAs, which means that this strategy is naturalyl meant to capture bigger moves, and thereby might not be a good fit for short time frames. But assumptions like that do not mean anything, because we've backested it! See youself.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 13.9 months of BTCUSDT • 1 Hour (Bitcoin vs Tether, Binance US) data, from May 22, 2024 to July 12, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested 50/200 SMA cross on 13.9 months of BTCUSDT • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 37 positions, with the average win rate of 43% and reward-risk ratio of 2.24. If you assume that 2.24 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 30.9 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 37 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 36.40% vs 68.20% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -31.30% vs -30.60% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 56.20% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 43.0%, vs 30.9% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.24
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 56% time-in-market, you get 53.37% of the asset upside potential, and 102.29% of the asset downside potential.
50/200 SMA cross: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Papa" 60min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↗ 60min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross: exit a position when
All of the following: # "India" 60min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↘ 60min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross @ BTCUSDT • 1 Hour (36.4%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results for this 50/200 SMA cross strategy show some interesting metrics, but I am having concerns about its reliability for real trading.
The strategy shows decent risk management with a good Risk/Reward ratio of 2.24 and healthy win rate leeway of 42.69%. This means theoretically you only need 30.9% win rate to be profitable, and you are achieving 43%. However, the max drawdown of -31.3% is quite concerning - this is a significant risk exposure that could be problematic in real trading scenarios. Also the strategy underperforms buy & hold by almost half (36.4% vs 68.2%), which makes me questioning if the complexity is worth it.
What really concerns me is the relatively low number of trades (only 37 over 13.9 months) combined with long losing streaks of up to 10 trades. The Sharpe ratio of 0.39 and negative Sortino ratio (-0.09) indicate poor risk-adjusted returns. From mathematical perspective, we need more trades to have statistical significance - with only 2.7 trades per month on average, the sample size is too small to make reliable conclusions about the strategy's edge. I would want to see at least 100 trades before making any definitive judgements about the strategy's viability.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, let me break down this 50/200 SMA cross strategy on BTC! 🚀
First off, this strategy is giving some decent vibes with that 36.4% net profit, though it's lagging behind the buy & hold at 68.2%. But check this out - we're only exposed to the market 56% of the time, which means less stress and more time to flip burgers at Wendy's! 🍔 The risk metrics are actually pretty solid, with a 2.24 risk/reward ratio and that juicy 42.69% win rate leeway above the minimum needed.
What's really got me hyped is the winning trades averaging 5.70% gains while losses are kept to -2.55%. That's the kind of asymmetric betting I live for! 💎🙌 Yeah, the 43% win rate might look meh, but with those ratios, we're still making bank. That 10-trade losing streak is a bit scary though - gotta have diamond hands to hold through that kind of pain! The monthly performance is looking pretty fire too, especially that 12.6% in just the last month. 📈
Overall, this strategy isn't going to make us millionaires overnight, but it's got some serious potential for steady gains while keeping our risk in check. Just need to size those positions right and maybe we can upgrade from the dollar menu to the Baconator combo! 🎯
Tabular metrics of 50/200 SMA cross backtested on BTCUSDT • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 37 | Net Profit | 36.4% | Buy & Hold Profit | 68.2% |
| Win Rate | 43% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.24 | Max Drawdown | -31.3% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -30.6% | Exposure | 56.2% | Avg Candles in Position | 150.8 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.39 | Sortino Ratio | -0.09 | Realized Volatility | 30.66% |
| Max Winning Streak | 7 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.7 | Max Losing Streak | 10 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 3.5 | Avg Trades per Month | 5.3 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.2 |
| Return Std Dev | 6.3 | Loss Std Dev | 1.6 | Win Std Dev | 7.1 |
| Expectancy | 0.4 | Beta | 0.5 |
All backtests for 50/200 SMA cross
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 57% | (5.4%/8.9%) 0.61x | (-2.0%/-1.9%) 1.05x | 39 | 5.4 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 61% | (-1.1%/-1.0%) 1.10x | (-1.2%/-1.2%) 1.00x | 20 | 1.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 52% | (1.7%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-2.5%/-5.5%) 0.45x | 36 | 2.5 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 61% | (1.2%/16.7%) 0.07x | (-7.9%/-4.4%) 1.80x | 28 | 2.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 60% | (0.5%/4.6%) 0.11x | (-2.5%/-2.1%) 1.19x | 33 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 47% | (6.6%/-10.3%) -0.64x | (-11.2%/-21.4%) 0.52x | 39 | 2.1 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 41% | (-0.5%/-5.4%) 0.09x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 29 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (18.2%/22.4%) 0.81x | (-8.6%/-12.1%) 0.71x | 41 | 3.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 55% | (2.5%/5.8%) 0.43x | (-2.2%/-4.3%) 0.51x | 38 | 2.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 58% | (26.1%/43.7%) 0.60x | (-5.9%/-8.3%) 0.71x | 54 | 3.1 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 57% | (5.0%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-33.4%/-42.8%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 60% | (6.6%/14.3%) 0.46x | (-13.4%/-20.7%) 0.65x | 41 | 1.9 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 47% | (18.4%/59.0%) 0.31x | (-34.8%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 41 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 60% | (37.4%/40.1%) 0.93x | (-10.3%/-23.8%) 0.43x | 62 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 56% | (36.4%/68.2%) 0.53x | (-31.3%/-30.6%) 1.02x | 43 | 2.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 50% | (6.9%/6.8%) 1.01x | (-5.7%/-9.0%) 0.63x | 42 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 60% | (35.8%/117.6%) 0.30x | (-26.6%/-22.2%) 1.20x | 36 | 3.0 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 61% | (783.4%/3126.3%) 0.25x | (-51.4%/-68.0%) 0.76x | 52 | 3.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 64% | (85.7%/106.7%) 0.80x | (-19.0%/-35.1%) 0.54x | 61 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 55% | (2930.2%/1395.5%) 2.10x | (-38.7%/-75.1%) 0.52x | 56 | 6.0 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 60% | (33.6%/138.2%) 0.24x | (-28.4%/-26.9%) 1.06x | 50 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 59% | (638.7%/1337.5%) 0.48x | (-61.1%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 83 | 7.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 35% | (4.8%/10.8%) 0.44x | (-12.2%/-23.3%) 0.52x | 71 | 0.7 |
GLD • Daily | 61% | (242.9%/595.1%) 0.41x | (-36.4%/-45.3%) 0.80x | 46 | 6.4 |
NVDA • Daily | 65% | (83183.3%/373678.5%) 0.22x | (-57.1%/-90.0%) 0.63x | 77 | 16.0 |
SPY • Daily | 72% | (1127.3%/1316.3%) 0.86x | (-32.5%/-56.7%) 0.57x | 87 | 3.8 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (3139.0%/24185.2%) 0.13x | (-65.4%/-75.0%) 0.87x | 38 | 25.3 |
WMT • Daily | 64% | (1143.9%/13022.2%) 0.09x | (-57.1%/-50.6%) 1.13x | 39 | 8.1 |