50/200 SMA crosslongBacktest Results @ WMT • 1 Minute
The Moving Average Crossover strategy uses two moving averages of different periods to generate buy and sell signals. It appoximates the idea of a trending market by using 2 SMAs, one short fast SMA(50) and another slow longer SMA(200). It buys whenever a short SMA(50) crosses up a long SMA(200), thereby implying that the direction of the market has changed. It sells once a short SMA(50) crosses down a long SMA(200). These are fairly long MAs, which means that this strategy is naturalyl meant to capture bigger moves, and thereby might not be a good fit for short time frames. But assumptions like that do not mean anything, because we've backested it! See youself.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 38 days of WMT • 1 Minute (Walmart Inc.) data, from June 3, 2025 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested 50/200 SMA cross on 38 days of WMT • 1 Minute candles. This backtest resulted in 28 positions, with the average win rate of 29% and reward-risk ratio of 2.35. If you assume that 2.35 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 29.9 to be profitable. So you're screwed! However, 28 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -0.50% vs -5.40% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -3.90% vs -6.40% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 40.60% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 29.0%, vs 29.9% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.35
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 41% time-in-market, you get 9.26% of the asset upside potential, and 60.94% of the asset downside potential.
50/200 SMA cross: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Papa" 1min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↗ 1min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross: exit a position when
All of the following: # "India" 1min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↘ 1min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross @ WMT • 1 Minute (-0.5%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike
Alex C
AuthorThese backtest results are interesting, but I see some warning flags that make me sceptical of this strategy. Let me explain why from mathematical perspective.
The win rate of 29% is quite low, even though the risk/reward ratio of 2.35 technically makes it viable. What concerns me most is the maximum losing streak of 11 trades - this indicates high probability of significant drawdowns, which the data confirms with -3.9% max drawdown. For a simple moving average crossover system, these metrics suggest the strategy might be catching too much noise on the 1-minute timeframe.
From statistical viewpoint, 28 total trades is too small sample size to make reliable conclusions. We need minimum 100 trades ideally to have statistical significance. The market exposure of 40.6% suggests the strategy is quite selective with entries, which is good, but combined with the low sample size makes me doubtful about the robustness of these results. I would recommend extending the backtest period or adjusting the parameters to generate more trading signals for proper validation.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this 50/200 SMA cross strategy on WMT is giving me some mixed vibes! 🤔
The strategy actually beat buy & hold by nearly 5% (-0.5% vs -5.4%), which is kinda lit considering the bearish market we're looking at. Plus that 40.6% market exposure means we're not stuck holding through all the dumps! 📉 That's some smart money moves right there.
But ngl, that 29% win rate is making me a bit nervous fam. Even though we're getting bigger wins than losses (0.76% wins vs -0.32% losses), that 11-trade losing streak could shake out paper hands real quick! 💎🙌 Still, the strategy's win rate leeway is insanely good at 2870% above minimal required - that's some serious cushion for when things get rough. And that -3.9% max drawdown is way better than the asset's -6.4%, so we're definitely managing risk better than just HODLing! Not quite Lambo money yet, but definitely better than my usual Wendy's plays 😅
Tabular metrics of 50/200 SMA cross backtested on WMT • 1 Minute
| Total Trades | 28 | Net Profit | -0.5% | Buy & Hold Profit | -5.4% |
| Win Rate | 29% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.35 | Max Drawdown | -3.9% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -6.4% | Exposure | 40.6% | Avg Candles in Position | 144.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | Realized Volatility | — | ||
| Max Winning Streak | 3 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.0 | Max Losing Streak | 11 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 4.0 | Avg Trades per Month | 44.2 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.5 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.7 | Loss Std Dev | 0.2 | Win Std Dev | 0.9 |
| Expectancy | -0.0 | Beta | 0.38 |
All backtests for 50/200 SMA cross
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 57% | (5.4%/8.9%) 0.61x | (-2.0%/-1.9%) 1.05x | 39 | 5.4 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 61% | (-1.1%/-1.0%) 1.10x | (-1.2%/-1.2%) 1.00x | 20 | 1.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 52% | (1.7%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-2.5%/-5.5%) 0.45x | 36 | 2.5 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 61% | (1.2%/16.7%) 0.07x | (-7.9%/-4.4%) 1.80x | 28 | 2.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 60% | (0.5%/4.6%) 0.11x | (-2.5%/-2.1%) 1.19x | 33 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 47% | (6.6%/-10.3%) -0.64x | (-11.2%/-21.4%) 0.52x | 39 | 2.1 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 41% | (-0.5%/-5.4%) 0.09x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 29 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (18.2%/22.4%) 0.81x | (-8.6%/-12.1%) 0.71x | 41 | 3.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 55% | (2.5%/5.8%) 0.43x | (-2.2%/-4.3%) 0.51x | 38 | 2.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 58% | (26.1%/43.7%) 0.60x | (-5.9%/-8.3%) 0.71x | 54 | 3.1 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 57% | (5.0%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-33.4%/-42.8%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 60% | (6.6%/14.3%) 0.46x | (-13.4%/-20.7%) 0.65x | 41 | 1.9 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 47% | (18.4%/59.0%) 0.31x | (-34.8%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 41 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 60% | (37.4%/40.1%) 0.93x | (-10.3%/-23.8%) 0.43x | 62 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 56% | (36.4%/68.2%) 0.53x | (-31.3%/-30.6%) 1.02x | 43 | 2.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 50% | (6.9%/6.8%) 1.01x | (-5.7%/-9.0%) 0.63x | 42 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 60% | (35.8%/117.6%) 0.30x | (-26.6%/-22.2%) 1.20x | 36 | 3.0 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 61% | (783.4%/3126.3%) 0.25x | (-51.4%/-68.0%) 0.76x | 52 | 3.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 64% | (85.7%/106.7%) 0.80x | (-19.0%/-35.1%) 0.54x | 61 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 55% | (2930.2%/1395.5%) 2.10x | (-38.7%/-75.1%) 0.52x | 56 | 6.0 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 60% | (33.6%/138.2%) 0.24x | (-28.4%/-26.9%) 1.06x | 50 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 59% | (638.7%/1337.5%) 0.48x | (-61.1%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 83 | 7.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 35% | (4.8%/10.8%) 0.44x | (-12.2%/-23.3%) 0.52x | 71 | 0.7 |
GLD • Daily | 61% | (242.9%/595.1%) 0.41x | (-36.4%/-45.3%) 0.80x | 46 | 6.4 |
NVDA • Daily | 65% | (83183.3%/373678.5%) 0.22x | (-57.1%/-90.0%) 0.63x | 77 | 16.0 |
SPY • Daily | 72% | (1127.3%/1316.3%) 0.86x | (-32.5%/-56.7%) 0.57x | 87 | 3.8 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (3139.0%/24185.2%) 0.13x | (-65.4%/-75.0%) 0.87x | 38 | 25.3 |
WMT • Daily | 64% | (1143.9%/13022.2%) 0.09x | (-57.1%/-50.6%) 1.13x | 39 | 8.1 |