50/200 SMA crosslongBacktest Results @ EURUSD • 1 Minute
The Moving Average Crossover strategy uses two moving averages of different periods to generate buy and sell signals. It appoximates the idea of a trending market by using 2 SMAs, one short fast SMA(50) and another slow longer SMA(200). It buys whenever a short SMA(50) crosses up a long SMA(200), thereby implying that the direction of the market has changed. It sells once a short SMA(50) crosses down a long SMA(200). These are fairly long MAs, which means that this strategy is naturalyl meant to capture bigger moves, and thereby might not be a good fit for short time frames. But assumptions like that do not mean anything, because we've backested it! See youself.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 9 days of EURUSD • 1 Minute (Euro vs USD spot (Interactive Brokers)) data, from July 2, 2025 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested 50/200 SMA cross on 9 days of EURUSD • 1 Minute candles. This backtest resulted in 20 positions, with the average win rate of 20% and reward-risk ratio of 1.13. If you assume that 1.13 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 47.0 to be profitable. So you're screwed! However, 20 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -1.10% vs -1.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -1.20% vs -1.20% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 60.70% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 20.0%, vs 47.0% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.13
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 61% time-in-market, you get 110.00% of the asset upside potential, and 100.00% of the asset downside potential.
50/200 SMA cross: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Papa" 1min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↗ 1min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross: exit a position when
All of the following: # "India" 1min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↘ 1min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross @ EURUSD • 1 Minute (-1.1%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some serious problems with this SMA cross strategy. Let me tell you why I think this is not good for trading.
First of all, the win rate of 20% is terrible - only 4 winning trades out of 20 total trades. Even though the Risk/Reward ratio is slightly positive at 1.13, this can't compensate for such a low win rate. A strategy needs at least 46.9% win rate to be profitable with this R/R ratio, but we are far away from that. That's mathematically impossible to be profitable in the long run.
The second big problem I see is the high frequency of trades - 4.4 trades per day on average. With such high frequency and low win rate, you will just slowly bleed your account dry through death by thousand cuts. The average losing streak of 3.2 trades and maximum losing streak of 6 trades would be psychologically very difficult to handle, even if you would trade with perfect discipline which most people don't have.
I must say, as someone who believes in mathematical validation, this strategy should not be traded live. The negative expectancy of -0.6 means you are expected to lose money over time. While the drawdown of -1.2% doesn't look dramatic, remember this is just from 9 days of testing. Over longer periods, the drawdown would likely be much worse. I would completely reject this strategy and look for something with better statistical properties.
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this is one of the most terrible strategies I've seen in my carrier! Let me tell you why this is complete basura.
First, your win rate is pathetic - only 20%! This means you're losing 4 trades out of 5. Even casino gives you better odds than that! And with such microscopic gains (0.11% average win vs -0.09% average loss), you're basically paying your broker to lose money. The fact that your max losing streak is 6 trades in a row should make you run away screaming.
Your net profit is -1.1%, which is even worse than if you just bought and held like a complete principiante (-1.0%). You're actively making things worse with your trading! With 60.7% market exposure, you're taking all this risk for absolutely nothing.
The only thing that looks decent is your Risk/Reward ratio of 1.13, but who cares when you're losing most of the time? This is like having a beautiful steering wheel on a car with no engine.
Mi consejo? Throw this strategy in the garbage where it belongs and start from scratch. And next time, please test your strategies properly before wasting my time with such nonsense. This is not trading, this is donating money to the market.
Tabular metrics of 50/200 SMA cross backtested on EURUSD • 1 Minute
| Total Trades | 20 | Net Profit | -1.1% | Buy & Hold Profit | -1.0% |
| Win Rate | 20% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.13 | Max Drawdown | -1.2% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -1.2% | Exposure | 60.7% | Avg Candles in Position | 215.1 |
| Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | Realized Volatility | — | ||
| Max Winning Streak | 1 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.0 | Max Losing Streak | 6 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 3.2 | Avg Trades per Month | 133.3 | Avg Trades per Day | 4.4 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.1 | Loss Std Dev | 0.1 | Win Std Dev | 0.1 |
| Expectancy | -0.6 | Beta | 0.75 |
All backtests for 50/200 SMA cross
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 57% | (5.4%/8.9%) 0.61x | (-2.0%/-1.9%) 1.05x | 39 | 5.4 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 61% | (-1.1%/-1.0%) 1.10x | (-1.2%/-1.2%) 1.00x | 20 | 1.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 52% | (1.7%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-2.5%/-5.5%) 0.45x | 36 | 2.5 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 61% | (1.2%/16.7%) 0.07x | (-7.9%/-4.4%) 1.80x | 28 | 2.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 60% | (0.5%/4.6%) 0.11x | (-2.5%/-2.1%) 1.19x | 33 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 47% | (6.6%/-10.3%) -0.64x | (-11.2%/-21.4%) 0.52x | 39 | 2.1 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 41% | (-0.5%/-5.4%) 0.09x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 29 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (18.2%/22.4%) 0.81x | (-8.6%/-12.1%) 0.71x | 41 | 3.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 55% | (2.5%/5.8%) 0.43x | (-2.2%/-4.3%) 0.51x | 38 | 2.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 58% | (26.1%/43.7%) 0.60x | (-5.9%/-8.3%) 0.71x | 54 | 3.1 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 57% | (5.0%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-33.4%/-42.8%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 60% | (6.6%/14.3%) 0.46x | (-13.4%/-20.7%) 0.65x | 41 | 1.9 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 47% | (18.4%/59.0%) 0.31x | (-34.8%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 41 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 60% | (37.4%/40.1%) 0.93x | (-10.3%/-23.8%) 0.43x | 62 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 56% | (36.4%/68.2%) 0.53x | (-31.3%/-30.6%) 1.02x | 43 | 2.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 50% | (6.9%/6.8%) 1.01x | (-5.7%/-9.0%) 0.63x | 42 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 60% | (35.8%/117.6%) 0.30x | (-26.6%/-22.2%) 1.20x | 36 | 3.0 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 61% | (783.4%/3126.3%) 0.25x | (-51.4%/-68.0%) 0.76x | 52 | 3.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 64% | (85.7%/106.7%) 0.80x | (-19.0%/-35.1%) 0.54x | 61 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 55% | (2930.2%/1395.5%) 2.10x | (-38.7%/-75.1%) 0.52x | 56 | 6.0 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 60% | (33.6%/138.2%) 0.24x | (-28.4%/-26.9%) 1.06x | 50 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 59% | (638.7%/1337.5%) 0.48x | (-61.1%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 83 | 7.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 35% | (4.8%/10.8%) 0.44x | (-12.2%/-23.3%) 0.52x | 71 | 0.7 |
GLD • Daily | 61% | (242.9%/595.1%) 0.41x | (-36.4%/-45.3%) 0.80x | 46 | 6.4 |
NVDA • Daily | 65% | (83183.3%/373678.5%) 0.22x | (-57.1%/-90.0%) 0.63x | 77 | 16.0 |
SPY • Daily | 72% | (1127.3%/1316.3%) 0.86x | (-32.5%/-56.7%) 0.57x | 87 | 3.8 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (3139.0%/24185.2%) 0.13x | (-65.4%/-75.0%) 0.87x | 38 | 25.3 |
WMT • Daily | 64% | (1143.9%/13022.2%) 0.09x | (-57.1%/-50.6%) 1.13x | 39 | 8.1 |