50/200 SMA crosslongBacktest Results @ BTCUSDT • 1 Minute
The Moving Average Crossover strategy uses two moving averages of different periods to generate buy and sell signals. It appoximates the idea of a trending market by using 2 SMAs, one short fast SMA(50) and another slow longer SMA(200). It buys whenever a short SMA(50) crosses up a long SMA(200), thereby implying that the direction of the market has changed. It sells once a short SMA(50) crosses down a long SMA(200). These are fairly long MAs, which means that this strategy is naturalyl meant to capture bigger moves, and thereby might not be a good fit for short time frames. But assumptions like that do not mean anything, because we've backested it! See youself.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 7 days of BTCUSDT • 1 Minute (Bitcoin vs Tether, Binance US) data, from July 5, 2025 to July 13, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested 50/200 SMA cross on 7 days of BTCUSDT • 1 Minute candles. This backtest resulted in 18 positions, with the average win rate of 39% and reward-risk ratio of 5.43. If you assume that 5.43 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 15.6 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 18 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 5.40% vs 8.90% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -2.00% vs -1.90% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 57.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 39.0%, vs 15.6% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 5.43
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 57% time-in-market, you get 60.67% of the asset upside potential, and 105.26% of the asset downside potential.
50/200 SMA cross: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Papa" 1min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↗ 1min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross: exit a position when
All of the following: # "India" 1min Simple Moving Average (50, 0, close) Crosses ↘ 1min Simple Moving Average (200, 0, close)
50/200 SMA cross @ BTCUSDT • 1 Minute (5.4%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results from this 50/200 SMA cross strategy show some interesting patterns, but I have concerns about the statistical significance since we only have 18 trades in 7 days. This is too small sample size to make reliable conclusions.
The positive aspects I see are the good risk/reward ratio of 5.43 and relatively small drawdown of 2%. Also the strategy shows decent market exposure of 57% which is quite optimal for crypto trading. But the win rate of 39% is suboptimal, even though the minimal required win rate of 15.6% gives good safety margin. The average winning trade being 1.08% while average loss is only -0.20% explains why strategy can be profitable despite low win rate.
I would recommend to test this over much longer timeframe, minimum 6 months, to get more statistical significance. Also the buy & hold beating the strategy by 3.5% in this period is not optimal. The losing streaks of up to 4 trades could be psychologically challenging for many traders. Consider adding additional confirmation signals to improve entry timing and win rate.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this 50/200 SMA cross strategy on BTC is giving me some mixed vibes! 🤔
Looking at these numbers, we're getting some seriously juicy risk/reward ratio at 5.43 and that win rate leeway is absolutely bonkers at 3884% above minimal - that's the kind of safety net I dream about while flipping burgers! 🍔 The average win (1.08%) is crushing the average loss (-0.20%), which is pretty sweet for risk management.
But here's the thing bros - that 39% win rate is kinda making me nervous, especially with those 4-trade losing streaks 😬. The strategy is underperforming buy & hold (5.4% vs 8.9%), but that's not necessarily a deal-breaker since we're only exposed to the market 57% of the time. That could actually be good for sleeping better at night and having dry powder ready for the real opportunities! 💪
Overall, I'm cautiously optimistic about this one. The numbers show it's got solid bones, but might need some tweaking to bump up that win rate. Maybe adding some filters or confirmation signals could help catch better quality trades. Still, with that crazy good risk/reward ratio, this could be worth paper trading to see how it performs in real market conditions! 🚀 Just remember, past performance doesn't guarantee future tendies! 🍗
Sarah
AuthorMadre mia, what a disaster of a strategy! You're basically throwing money away with more style than necesary.
Look at these numbers - 39% win rate? That's pathetic! And you're underperforming buy & hold by 3.5% which means you would have made more money by just buying Bitcoin and going to sleep. The only thing impressive here is how consistently bad this is performing.
The risk metrics are completely broken - all those "NaN" values suggest your backtest period is too short to even be taken seriously. 7 days? Are you kidding me? This is like judging a restaurant by licking the door handle! You need at least 3 months of data to have any meaningful conclusions, preferably 6-12 months.
The only remotely positive thing I see is the risk/reward ratio of 5.43, but with such a miserable win rate and short testing period, this is probably just luck. And 18 trades is nowhere near enough to draw any statistical conclusions - this is like trying to predict the weather by looking at clouds for 5 minutes.
My advice? Throw this strategy in the garbage where it belongs and start over. And next time, use a proper testing period, por favor!
Tabular metrics of 50/200 SMA cross backtested on BTCUSDT • 1 Minute
| Total Trades | 18 | Net Profit | 5.4% | Buy & Hold Profit | 8.9% |
| Win Rate | 39% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 5.43 | Max Drawdown | -2.0% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -1.9% | Exposure | 57.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 176.7 |
| Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | Realized Volatility | — | ||
| Max Winning Streak | 2 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.4 | Max Losing Streak | 4 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.8 | Avg Trades per Month | 154.3 | Avg Trades per Day | 5.1 |
| Return Std Dev | 1.1 | Loss Std Dev | 0.1 | Win Std Dev | 1.5 |
| Expectancy | 1.5 | Beta | 0.63 |
All backtests for 50/200 SMA cross
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 57% | (5.4%/8.9%) 0.61x | (-2.0%/-1.9%) 1.05x | 39 | 5.4 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 61% | (-1.1%/-1.0%) 1.10x | (-1.2%/-1.2%) 1.00x | 20 | 1.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 52% | (1.7%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-2.5%/-5.5%) 0.45x | 36 | 2.5 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 61% | (1.2%/16.7%) 0.07x | (-7.9%/-4.4%) 1.80x | 28 | 2.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 60% | (0.5%/4.6%) 0.11x | (-2.5%/-2.1%) 1.19x | 33 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 47% | (6.6%/-10.3%) -0.64x | (-11.2%/-21.4%) 0.52x | 39 | 2.1 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 41% | (-0.5%/-5.4%) 0.09x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 29 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (18.2%/22.4%) 0.81x | (-8.6%/-12.1%) 0.71x | 41 | 3.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 55% | (2.5%/5.8%) 0.43x | (-2.2%/-4.3%) 0.51x | 38 | 2.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 58% | (26.1%/43.7%) 0.60x | (-5.9%/-8.3%) 0.71x | 54 | 3.1 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 57% | (5.0%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-33.4%/-42.8%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 60% | (6.6%/14.3%) 0.46x | (-13.4%/-20.7%) 0.65x | 41 | 1.9 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 47% | (18.4%/59.0%) 0.31x | (-34.8%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 41 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 60% | (37.4%/40.1%) 0.93x | (-10.3%/-23.8%) 0.43x | 62 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 56% | (36.4%/68.2%) 0.53x | (-31.3%/-30.6%) 1.02x | 43 | 2.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 50% | (6.9%/6.8%) 1.01x | (-5.7%/-9.0%) 0.63x | 42 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 60% | (35.8%/117.6%) 0.30x | (-26.6%/-22.2%) 1.20x | 36 | 3.0 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 61% | (783.4%/3126.3%) 0.25x | (-51.4%/-68.0%) 0.76x | 52 | 3.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 64% | (85.7%/106.7%) 0.80x | (-19.0%/-35.1%) 0.54x | 61 | 2.3 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 55% | (2930.2%/1395.5%) 2.10x | (-38.7%/-75.1%) 0.52x | 56 | 6.0 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 60% | (33.6%/138.2%) 0.24x | (-28.4%/-26.9%) 1.06x | 50 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 59% | (638.7%/1337.5%) 0.48x | (-61.1%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 83 | 7.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 35% | (4.8%/10.8%) 0.44x | (-12.2%/-23.3%) 0.52x | 71 | 0.7 |
GLD • Daily | 61% | (242.9%/595.1%) 0.41x | (-36.4%/-45.3%) 0.80x | 46 | 6.4 |
NVDA • Daily | 65% | (83183.3%/373678.5%) 0.22x | (-57.1%/-90.0%) 0.63x | 77 | 16.0 |
SPY • Daily | 72% | (1127.3%/1316.3%) 0.86x | (-32.5%/-56.7%) 0.57x | 87 | 3.8 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (3139.0%/24185.2%) 0.13x | (-65.4%/-75.0%) 0.87x | 38 | 25.3 |
WMT • Daily | 64% | (1143.9%/13022.2%) 0.09x | (-57.1%/-50.6%) 1.13x | 39 | 8.1 |