Buy at opening candle range breakoutlong
Backtest-Ergebnisse @ TSLA β€’ 5 Minutes

Diese Intraday-Breakout-Strategie versucht einzusteigen, sobald der Preis über das Hoch der Erâffnungskerze ausbricht, in jedem Stadium eines Tages. Sie nimmt Gewinn auf Erâffnungsbereich Hoch + Erâffnungsbereich Grâße und hat einen Stop Loss auf Erâffnungsbereich Tief. Sie trÀgt nie eine Position über Nacht; sie steigt immer auf der letzten Kerze eines Tages aus, falls keine anderen Ausstiegsbedingungen erfüllt wurden.

Eigenkapitalkurve

Der Backtest umfasst 6.2 months von TSLA β€’ 5 Minutes (Tesla, Inc.) Daten, von January 28, 2025 bis August 1, 2025.

Die Eigenkapitalkurve zeigt die Leistung der Strategie im Zeitverlauf. Sie sollten sie mit der Buy & Hold Performance des Assets vergleichen. Im Allgemeinen sollte der blaue Bereich deutlich ΓΌber dem grauen Bereich liegen.

Drawdown zeigt, wie viel Verluste (realisiert oder nicht realisiert) die Strategie im Vergleich zum hΓΆchsten Eigenkapitalpeak hatte. Vergleichen Sie dies mit dem Drawdown des Assets, um zu sehen, ob Ihre Strategie eine anstΓ€ndige Arbeit leistet, Sie von AbwΓ€rtsvolatilitΓ€t zu isolieren. Im Allgemeinen muss der rote Bereich gut innerhalb des grauen Bereichs liegen.

Eigenkapitalkurve
Strategie
Asset
Strategie Drawdown
Asset Drawdown

Also haben wir Buy at opening candle range breakout ΓΌber 6.2 months von TSLA β€’ 5 Minutes Kerzen getestet.Β Dieser Backtest ergab 76 Positionen, mit einer durchschnittlichen Gewinnrate von 68% und einem Risiko-Rendite-VerhΓ€ltnis von 0.90.Β Wenn Sie annehmen, dass das 0.90 Risiko-Rendite-VerhΓ€ltnis gilt, benΓΆtigen Sie eine Mindestgewinnrate von 52.6, um profitabel zu sein. Sie stehen also gut da.Β Allerdings sind 76 Positionen eine kleine Stichprobe, nehmen Sie die Ergebnisse also mit einer großen Portion Skepsis.Β Die wichtigsten Metriken sind wie folgt:

  1. Gesamtrendite: Gesamtrendite: 47.40% vs -22.20% fΓΌr das Asset
  2. Maximaler Drawdown: Maximaler Drawdown: -7.10% vs -48.50% fΓΌr das Asset
  3. Exposition: Exposition: 21.20% Zeit im Markt
  4. Gewinnrate: Gewinnrate: 68.0%, vs 52.6% Minimum
  5. Risiko/Rendite-VerhΓ€ltnis: Risiko/Rendite-VerhΓ€ltnis: 0.90

Mit dieser Exposition kΓΆnnen Sie erkennen, dass Sie bei 21% Marktzeit -213.51% des Asset-AufwΓ€rtspotenzials und 14.64% des Asset-AbwΓ€rtspotenzials erhalten.

Buy at opening candle range breakout: Position eingehen wenn

All of the following: # Papa
  5min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged

Buy at opening candle range breakout: Position verlassen wenn

All of the following: # X-ray
  5min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged

Buy at opening candle range breakout @ TSLA β€’ 5 Minutes (47.4%) erklΓ€rt von Alex C, Mike, Sarah

Alex C

Autor

These backtest results look quite promising, but we must be careful with our conclusions. The strategy shows good statistical significance with 76 trades over 6.2 months - that's enough sample size to make initial judgements.

The win rate of 68% combined with nearly equal average win (1.60%) and loss sizes (-1.78%) is mathematically sound. This creates a positive expectancy of 0.3, which is quite decent. What I find particularly interessting is the low market exposure of 21.2% - this means the strategy is not constantly in the market, which reduces overall risk exposure significantly. The max drawdown of -7.1% is also quite acceptable when compared to the asset's drawdown of -48.5%.

However, I see some potential concerns here. The average hold time of 26.9 candles (about 2.2 hours) means this is not exactly a scalping strategy, so slippage might affect real performance differently than in backtest. Also, while the strategy performed well in a declining market (asset CAGR -45.4%), we should test it in different market conditions to ensure it's not just working well in bear markets. I would suggest running additional backtests with different timeperiods to verify the robustness of these metrics.

Mike

Autor

Yo fam, these TSLA backtest results are looking pretty fire! πŸš€ The strategy is crushing it with a 47.4% gain while TSLA itself was down 22% - that's some serious alpha right there! πŸ’ͺ

The numbers are looking super clean too - 68% win rate is no joke, and the average winner is pretty close to the average loser (1.6% vs -1.78%). What really gets me hyped is that tiny 7.1% drawdown compared to TSLA's crazy -48.5% drawdown. That's the kind of risk management that keeps you from getting rekt! The strategy only keeps you in the market 21% of the time, which means you're not bagholding through the rough patches.

Listen up though fam - while I'm definitely feeling bullish about these results, we gotta stay grounded. The backtest only covers 6 months, so we might wanna see how it performs over different market conditions. But with those Sharpe and Sortino ratios above 3, and nearly a trade per day, this could be a solid strategy to throw some tendies at! πŸ— Just remember to start small and scale up gradually. To the moon! πŸŒ™

Sarah

Autor

Madre mΓ­a, let me tear this apart for you. The results look suspiciously good, which makes me very skeptical.

First off, a 68% win rate with almost balanced Risk/Reward is too good to be true for a simple breakout strategy. This screams curve fitting to me. And don't get me start with that ridiculous 47.4% profit while the underlying asset lost 22.2% - you're telling me you've found the holy grail of trading? Por favor! These numbers are typicaly beginner's trap.

The exposure is quite low at 21.2% which actually makes sense for a breakout strategy, but combining this with almost daily trades (0.8 per day) makes me wonder if you're not catching too many false signals. Having average position lasting 26.9 candles (about 2.2 hours) with 5-minute timeframe is actually decent - at least you're not doing that idiotic scalping nonsense.

Your drawdown is suspiciously low at 7.1% compared to asset's 48.5%. Either you're incredibly lucky with your backtest period, or more likely, you've optimized this strategy to death on this specific data set. I bet if you test it on different periods, it will fall apart faster than a cheap IKEA furniture.

Do yourself a favor - test this on different time periods and with slightly modified parameters. If the results stay anywhere close - I will eat my sombrero.

Tabellarische Metriken von Buy at opening candle range breakout getestet auf TSLA β€’ 5 Minutes

Gesamttrades76Nettogewinn47.4%Buy & Hold Gewinn-22.2%
Gewinnrate68%Risiko/Rendite-VerhΓ€ltnis0.90Maximaler Drawdown-7.1%
Asset Maximaler Drawdown-48.5%Exposition21.2%Durchschn. Kerzen in Position26.9
Sharpe-Ratio3.39Sortino-Ratio4.44Realisierte VolatilitΓ€t26.07%
Max. Gewinnserie8Durchschn. Gewinnserie2.7Max. Verlustserie3
Durchschn. Verlustserie1.3Durchschn. Trades pro Monat24.6Durchschn. Trades pro Tag0.8
Rendite Std Dev2.0Verlust Std Dev1.0Gewinn Std Dev1.4
Erwartungswert0.3Beta0.12

Alle Backtests fΓΌr Buy at opening candle range breakout

common.strategyExpositionLeistung vs AssetDrawdown vs AssetGewinnrateRisiko/Rendite
BTCUSDT β€’ 10 Minutes
15%(1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x(-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x560.9
EURUSD β€’ 10 Minutes
22%(0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x(-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x870.2
GLD β€’ 10 Minutes
24%(0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x(-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x600.7
NVDA β€’ 10 Minutes
32%(25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x(-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x541.1
PLTR β€’ 10 Minutes
33%(38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x(-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x581.0
SPY β€’ 10 Minutes
22%(16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x(-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x680.8
TSLA β€’ 10 Minutes
29%(-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x(-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x600.7
WMT β€’ 10 Minutes
32%(13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x(-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x630.8
BTCUSDT β€’ 15 Minutes
20%(2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x(-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x521.1
EURUSD β€’ 15 Minutes
27%(3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x(-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x830.3
GLD β€’ 15 Minutes
31%(4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x(-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x590.8
NVDA β€’ 15 Minutes
34%(69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x(-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x571.2
PLTR β€’ 15 Minutes
33%(124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x(-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x561.4
SPY β€’ 15 Minutes
24%(13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x(-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x620.8
TSLA β€’ 15 Minutes
27%(16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x(-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x560.9
WMT β€’ 15 Minutes
33%(27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x(-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x640.9
BTCUSDT β€’ 30 Minutes
21%(-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x(-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x570.7
EURUSD β€’ 30 Minutes
35%(-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x(-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x750.3
GLD β€’ 30 Minutes
34%(11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x(-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x551.0
NVDA β€’ 30 Minutes
34%(58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x(-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x541.1
PLTR β€’ 30 Minutes
30%(19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x(-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x540.9
SPY β€’ 30 Minutes
35%(18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x(-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x630.7
TSLA β€’ 30 Minutes
29%(62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x(-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x561.0
WMT β€’ 30 Minutes
32%(32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x(-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x581.1
BTCUSDT β€’ 5 Minutes
18%(2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x(-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x641.0
EURUSD β€’ 5 Minutes
23%(0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x(-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x880.2
GLD β€’ 5 Minutes
23%(-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x(-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x610.5
NVDA β€’ 5 Minutes
29%(14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x(-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x610.9
PLTR β€’ 5 Minutes
26%(18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x(-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x551.1
SPY β€’ 5 Minutes
14%(5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x(-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x610.9
TSLA β€’ 5 Minutes
21%(47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x(-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x680.9
WMT β€’ 5 Minutes
27%(12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x(-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x630.9