Buy at opening candle range breakoutlong

Backtest-Ergebnisse @ GLD • 30 Minutes

The backtest results show some serious problems from a mathematical perspective. The strategy significantly underperforms buy & hold (11.1% vs 87.3% over 3.1 years), which is the first red flag.

The win rate of 55% with a 1.0 risk/reward ratio gives us a positive expectancy of 0.1, which is technically profitable but extremely thin. With transaction costs and slippage in real trading, this edge would likely disappear completely. The strategy also shows high exposure to drawdowns relative to its returns - a 6.9% max drawdown for only 11.1% total gain is not optimal from a risk-adjusted perspective.

What concerns me most is the degrading performance over time periods. While 1M shows 58.5% CAGR, this drops dramatically to 3.8% over 3Y. This pattern suggests the strategy might be overfitted to recent data and lacks robustness. The low Sharpe ratio of 0.26 and negative Sortino ratio of -0.06 confirm the poor risk-adjusted performance.

I would not recommend trading this strategy in its current form. The mathematical evidence suggests it lacks statistical edge when accounting for real-world friction costs. One would need significantly better metrics - perhaps a risk/reward ratio of at least 1.5 while maintaining the current win rate - to make this worthwhile.

Yo fam, let me break down this GLD strategy for you! 🚀

Looking at these numbers, we've got a pretty solid base with that 55% win rate and balanced Risk/Reward ratio of 1.0. That 5450% win rate leeway is straight fire 🔥 - means we've got some serious cushion above what we need to stay profitable. Plus, averaging about 19 trades per month means we're not sitting on our hands waiting forever for signals.

But here's the thing bros - while we're making money (11.1% total gain), we're seriously underperforming the buy & hold (87.3%). That's kind of a bummer 😅. The max drawdown of -6.9% isn't too scary though, and I've definitely seen worse in my Wendy's portfolio lol. The strategy seems to work better in shorter timeframes - check out that 58.5% CAGR in the last month! 📈

Overall, this looks like a decent base strategy that could use some tweaking to juice up those returns. Maybe we could add some extra confirmation signals or optimize the exit strategy? I'd probably throw a small position at this while working on improvements. Not exactly YOLO material yet, but definitely has potential! 💎🙌

Madre mía, this strategy is a complete disaster! Let me tell you why you should throw this piece of garbage where it belongs - in the trash.

First of all, look at that pathetic 11.1% net profit over 3.1 years while the market made 87.3%! You would have made almost 8 times more money by simply buying and holding like a lazy person. What's even worse, your market exposure is only 34.3% - meaning you're missing most of the actual market moves while probably sitting there staring at your screen like an idiot.

The risk metrics are absolutely horrible, amigo. A Sharpe ratio of 0.26 and a negative Sortino ratio of -0.06? This tells me your strategy is taking stupid risks without proper compensation. Your max drawdown of -6.9% might look "not so bad" but considering the tiny returns, it's actually terrible!

The only slightly positive thing I can see is your win rate being 5% above the minimal required - but honestly, who cares when your average win and loss sizes are exactly the same (0.34%)? This means you're basically running in place like a hamster in a wheel, making your broker rich with commissions while achieving nothing.

Mi consejo? Delete this strategy and start over. Or better yet, just buy and hold if you can't come up with something actually profitable.