Diese Intraday-Breakout-Strategie versucht einzusteigen, sobald der Preis ΓΌber das Hoch der ErΓΆffnungskerze ausbricht, in jedem Stadium eines Tages. Sie nimmt Gewinn auf ErΓΆffnungsbereich Hoch + ErΓΆffnungsbereich GrΓΆΓe und hat einen Stop Loss auf ErΓΆffnungsbereich Tief. Sie trΓ€gt nie eine Position ΓΌber Nacht; sie steigt immer auf der letzten Kerze eines Tages aus, falls keine anderen Ausstiegsbedingungen erfΓΌllt wurden.
Der Backtest umfasst 18.7 months von TSLA β’ 15 Minutes (Tesla, Inc.) Daten, von January 17, 2024 bis August 1, 2025.
Die Eigenkapitalkurve zeigt die Leistung der Strategie im Zeitverlauf. Sie sollten sie mit der Buy & Hold Performance des Assets vergleichen. Im Allgemeinen sollte der blaue Bereich deutlich ΓΌber dem grauen Bereich liegen.
Drawdown zeigt, wie viel Verluste (realisiert oder nicht realisiert) die Strategie im Vergleich zum hΓΆchsten Eigenkapitalpeak hatte. Vergleichen Sie dies mit dem Drawdown des Assets, um zu sehen, ob Ihre Strategie eine anstΓ€ndige Arbeit leistet, Sie von AbwΓ€rtsvolatilitΓ€t zu isolieren. Im Allgemeinen muss der rote Bereich gut innerhalb des grauen Bereichs liegen.
Also haben wir Buy at opening candle range breakout ΓΌber 18.7 months von TSLA β’ 15 Minutes Kerzen getestet.Β Dieser Backtest ergab 193 Positionen, mit einer durchschnittlichen Gewinnrate von 56% und einem Risiko-Rendite-VerhΓ€ltnis von 0.88.Β Wenn Sie annehmen, dass das 0.88 Risiko-Rendite-VerhΓ€ltnis gilt, benΓΆtigen Sie eine Mindestgewinnrate von 53.2, um profitabel zu sein. Sie stehen also gut da.Β Die wichtigsten Metriken sind wie folgt:
Mit dieser Exposition kΓΆnnen Sie erkennen, dass Sie bei 27% Marktzeit 39.18% des Asset-AufwΓ€rtspotenzials und 35.97% des Asset-AbwΓ€rtspotenzials erhalten.
All of the following: # Papa 15min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
All of the following: # X-ray 15min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
The backtest results show some interesting patterns, but I am not fully convinced about the strategy's robustness. Let me explain why.
The win rate of 56% combined with a risk/reward ratio of 0.88 is actually not bad at all. What makes me concerned is the significant difference between strategy performance (16.3%) and buy & hold (41.6%). This suggests the strategy might be missing important moves in the market. The market exposure of only 26.9% confirms this - we are staying out of the market too much of the time.
The volatility metrics are quite interesting - the strategy's realized volatility (20.14%) is much lower than the asset's (67.11%). This means we are doing good job at risk management, but maybe we are being too conservative. The maximum drawdown of -20% is acceptable for TSLA trading, but the Sharpe ratio of 0.38 and negative Sortino ratio (-0.21) tell me the strategy is not generating enough excess returns for the risk it takes. The correlation of 0.33 shows we are not just following the market blindly - that's good.
I would suggest optimizing the entry conditions to increase market exposure while maintaining the solid win rate. Maybe we could look at adjusting the range breakout parameters to catch more moves. But overall, the strategy shows promise - it just needs some fine-tuning to improve its risk-adjusted returns.
Madre mΓa, this strategy is like a mediocre student trying to pass with minimal effort! Let me tell you why this is not impresive at all.
First, you're severely underperforming the market - 16.3% net profit versus 41.6% buy & hold? That's pathetic! You're basically losing money by trying to be clever instead of just buying and holding like a simpleton. The market exposure of 26.9% shows you're missing most of the actual moves, which explains the poor performance.
The risk metrics are absolutely terrible. A Sortino ratio of -0.21? That's embarassing! And that 20% maximum drawdown with such low market exposure is like getting a sunburn while sitting in the shade - it shouldn't happen! The Sharpe ratio of 0.38 is something I wouldn't even show to my worst enemy.
The only slightly decent thing here is the Win Rate of 56% with a 5.5% leeway above minimal required - but even this is nothing to write home about when your Risk/Reward ratio is below 1 (0.88). You're basically winning more often but losing more money when you lose - esta estrategia es una mierda completa!
If you're going to waste time implementing this strategy, you might as well just throw darts at a chart - might get better results!
Gesamttrades | 193 | Nettogewinn | 16.3% | Buy & Hold Gewinn | 41.6% |
Gewinnrate | 56% | Risiko/Rendite-VerhΓ€ltnis | 0.88 | Maximaler Drawdown | -20.0% |
Asset Maximaler Drawdown | -55.6% | Exposition | 26.9% | Durchschn. Kerzen in Position | 13.0 |
Sharpe-Ratio | 0.38 | Sortino-Ratio | -0.21 | Realisierte VolatilitΓ€t | 20.14% |
Max. Gewinnserie | 9 | Durchschn. Gewinnserie | 2.0 | Max. Verlustserie | 6 |
Durchschn. Verlustserie | 1.6 | Durchschn. Trades pro Monat | 20.6 | Durchschn. Trades pro Tag | 0.7 |
Rendite Std Dev | 1.8 | Verlust Std Dev | 1.1 | Gewinn Std Dev | 1.1 |
Erwartungswert | 0.1 | Beta | 0.1 |
common.strategy | Exposition | Leistung vs Asset | Drawdown vs Asset | Gewinnrate | Risiko/Rendite |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT β’ 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD β’ 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD β’ 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA β’ 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR β’ 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY β’ 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA β’ 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT β’ 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT β’ 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD β’ 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD β’ 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA β’ 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR β’ 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY β’ 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA β’ 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT β’ 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT β’ 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD β’ 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD β’ 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA β’ 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR β’ 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY β’ 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA β’ 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT β’ 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT β’ 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD β’ 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD β’ 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA β’ 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR β’ 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY β’ 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA β’ 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT β’ 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |