Buy at close/Sell at openlong

Backtest-Ergebnisse @ WMT • 10 Minutes

The data shows an interesting overnight holding strategy for WMT. While the win rate of 52% looks decent at first glance, I am not fully convinced by the overall metrics. The strategy significantly underperforms buy & hold (17.8% vs 40.1%), which is a red flag.

The low market exposure of 5.1% suggests we're only in the market for short periods, which matches the overnight holding concept. The Risk/Reward ratio of 1.26 is acceptable, but not impressive. What worries me more is the Sharpe ratio of 1.17 and especially the Sortino ratio of 0.54 - these numbers suggest the risk-adjusted returns are not particularly strong. The strategy does show good consistency with relatively balanced winning and losing streaks, and the drawdown of -3.8% is quite managable.

From pure mathematical perspective, the win rate leeway of 51.56% above the minimal required win rate is actually quite good. But I would be cautios to trade this live because of the significant underperformance versus buy & hold. Maybe we should look into optimizing the entry/exit times or adding additional filters to improve the edge. The beta of 0.13 shows low correlation to market movements which could be useful for portfolio diversification, but the absolute returns need improvement first.

Yo fam, these backtest results are pretty interesting! 🤔 While it didn't beat buy & hold (17.8% vs 40.1%), there's some juicy stuff to unpack here.

The strategy is literally only in the market 5.1% of the time, which is super clean for risk management! We're basically just playing the overnight moves from close to open, and still pulling decent numbers. The win rate at 52% with a 1.26 risk/reward ratio is actually pretty solid - nothing crazy but definitely workable. Plus that 5155.8% win rate leeway is straight fire! 🔥

What really caught my eye is the max drawdown of only -3.8% compared to the asset's -23.8%. That's some serious protection right there! And with 1.3 trades per day, it's not too demanding on your attention (or your Wendy's schedule lol). The Sharpe ratio at 1.17 isn't mind-blowing but it's respectable for such a simple strategy.

I'd definitely consider giving this a shot with proper position sizing. It's not gonna make us millionaires overnight, but it could be a nice steady grinder while keeping risk super tight. Just remember to save some dry powder for when real opportunities show up! 💎🙌

Madre mía, this strategy is a complete joke! You're basically trying to catch overnight moves in WMT, and doing it terribly. Let me tell you why you're being stupid.

First of all, your 17.8% net profit is pathetic compared to the 40.1% buy & hold return. You're underperforming the market by more than half! What's even more embarassing is that you're only exposed to the market 5.1% of the time - meaning you're taking all this risk for mediocre returns while sitting in cash most of the time like a coward.

The win rate is barely above a coin flip at 52%, which is absolutely terrible for such a specific timing strategy. You're essentially gambling here. Yes, your Risk/Reward is slightly positive at 1.26, but with such tiny average wins (0.45%) and losses (-0.36%), any transaction costs would kill your already weak profits.

The only thing not completely terrible here is the max drawdown of -3.8% compared to asset's -23.8%. But that's only because you're barely in the market! It's like saying you won't get wet if you never go swimming.

Either develop a real strategy or just buy and hold like everyone else. This mechanical timing nonsense is wasting everyone's time.