Diese Strategie nutzt einen bekannten Mythos, der besagt, dass wenn man zum Börsenschluss kauft und dann einfach am nächsten Tag zur Eröffnung verkauft, man gut abschneiden wird. Du kannst selbst sehen, dass die Ergebnisse... vielfältig sind, um es milde auszudrücken. Kann das Kaufen zum Schluss und Verkaufen zur Eröffnung Geld verdienen? Ist es nachhaltig? Sieh es dir selbst an, in den Backtest-Ergebnissen unten. Denk daran, dass es vielleicht Assets gibt, wo das Sinn machen könnte. Wir konnten sowieso nicht alle US-Aktien und ETFs abdecken.
Der Backtest umfasst 12.6 months von GLD • 10 Minutes (SPDR Gold Trust) Daten, von June 28, 2024 bis July 11, 2025.
Die Eigenkapitalkurve zeigt die Leistung der Strategie im Zeitverlauf. Sie sollten sie mit der Buy & Hold Performance des Assets vergleichen. Im Allgemeinen sollte der blaue Bereich deutlich über dem grauen Bereich liegen.
Drawdown zeigt, wie viel Verluste (realisiert oder nicht realisiert) die Strategie im Vergleich zum höchsten Eigenkapitalpeak hatte. Vergleichen Sie dies mit dem Drawdown des Assets, um zu sehen, ob Ihre Strategie eine anständige Arbeit leistet, Sie von Abwärtsvolatilität zu isolieren. Im Allgemeinen muss der rote Bereich gut innerhalb des grauen Bereichs liegen.
Also haben wir Buy at close/Sell at open über 12.6 months von GLD • 10 Minutes Kerzen getestet. Dieser Backtest ergab 255 Positionen, mit einer durchschnittlichen Gewinnrate von 50% und einem Risiko-Rendite-Verhältnis von 1.00. Wenn Sie annehmen, dass das 1.00 Risiko-Rendite-Verhältnis gilt, benötigen Sie eine Mindestgewinnrate von 50.0, um profitabel zu sein. Sie stehen also gut da. Die wichtigsten Metriken sind wie folgt:
Mit dieser Exposition können Sie erkennen, dass Sie bei 5% Marktzeit -1.14% des Asset-Aufwärtspotenzials und 78.31% des Asset-Abwärtspotenzials erhalten.
All of the following: # Yankee 10min Date&Time, Custom TZ (UTC+3), Time = 1550
All of the following: # Bravo 10min Date&Time, Custom TZ (UTC+3), Time = 930
The strategy looks quite poor from mathematical perspective. While it produces decent amount of trades (255 over the period), the results are not encouraging at all.
Most concerning is that strategy delivers -0.5% net profit while buy&hold gives +43.7%. This means the strategy significantly underperforms the market. The win rate of 50% combined with risk/reward ratio of 1.0 mathematically guarantees losses over time when accounting for transaction costs. The negative Sharpe (-0.77) and Sortino (-0.89) ratios confirm the poor risk-adjusted returns.
What I find particularly problematic is the market exposure of only 5.1%. This means the strategy misses most of the market moves by design. With such limited exposure time, the strategy would need much higher win rate or risk/reward ratio to be viable. The mathematics simply don't work out here - you cannot expect to capture meaningful returns when you're in the market such small percentage of time while having balanced wins and losses.
Bruh, this strategy is straight-up not giving the vibes we want! 🙅♂️ Trading GLD overnight and it's giving us negative returns while the market is up 43%? That's like working extra shifts at Wendy's just to lose money!
The stats are kinda sus too - 50/50 win rate with equal wins and losses is basically like flipping a coin, fam. 🎲 And that market exposure of only 5.1% means we're barely in the game! The Sharpe and Sortino ratios being negative are major red flags too, meaning we're not even getting paid for the risk we're taking.
Look, I'm usually the first one to see the potential moonshot in everything, but this ain't it chief. 💯 The strategy might look simple and clean, but with those numbers, you'd literally be better off just buying and holding GLD. Sometimes the simplest plays are the best plays - no need to overcomplicate things when the market's giving you free tendies with buy & hold! 🚀
Dios mío, this is absolutely terrible! What were you thinking with this ridiculous strategy?
The strategy is completely worthless - you're losing money (-0.5% net profit) while the market is having a fantastic run (+43.7% buy & hold). This is like watching someone drown in a swimming pool while wearing a life jacket! Your market exposure is pathetically low at 5.1% - you're basically sitting on the sidelines while GLD is making moves.
Look at those risk metrics - negative Sharpe and Sortino ratios! This means you're not even being compensated for the risk you're taking. The strategy is literally worse than throwing darts at a chart blindfolded. And that 50% win rate with 1:1 risk/reward? Madre de Dios, you're just flipping coins here!
The most painful part is seeing how the strategy consistently underperforms across all time periods. While GLD is showing strong CAGR numbers (39.9% for 1Y), your strategy is bleeding money like a wounded bull (-0.7% CAGR). This is not a trading strategy - this is financial self-harm!
My advice? Delete this strategy immediately and never speak of it again. Even buying lottery tickets would give you better odds than this disaster.
Gesamttrades | 255 | Nettogewinn | -0.5% | Buy & Hold Gewinn | 43.7% |
Gewinnrate | 50% | Risiko/Rendite-Verhältnis | 1.00 | Maximaler Drawdown | -6.5% |
Asset Maximaler Drawdown | -8.3% | Exposition | 5.1% | Durchschn. Kerzen in Position | 1.0 |
Sharpe-Ratio | -0.77 | Sortino-Ratio | -0.89 | Realisierte Volatilität | 4.91% |
Max. Gewinnserie | 5 | Durchschn. Gewinnserie | 1.9 | Max. Verlustserie | 6 |
Durchschn. Verlustserie | 1.9 | Durchschn. Trades pro Monat | 40.5 | Durchschn. Trades pro Tag | 1.3 |
Rendite Std Dev | 0.4 | Verlust Std Dev | 0.4 | Gewinn Std Dev | 0.3 |
Erwartungswert | -0.0 | Beta | 0.12 |
common.strategy | Exposition | Leistung vs Asset | Drawdown vs Asset | Gewinnrate | Risiko/Rendite |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD • 10 Minutes | 5% | (-0.5%/43.7%) -0.01x | (-6.5%/-8.3%) 0.78x | 50 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 5% | (4.8%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-20.9%/-42.8%) 0.49x | 50 | 1.1 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 5% | (1.0%/14.3%) 0.07x | (-4.8%/-20.7%) 0.23x | 51 | 1.0 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 5% | (24.5%/59.0%) 0.42x | (-12.6%/-55.3%) 0.23x | 50 | 1.2 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 5% | (17.8%/40.1%) 0.44x | (-3.8%/-23.8%) 0.16x | 52 | 1.3 |